SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Dec 16, 2013


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Dec - Feb.
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Dec 1-14 OBSERVED Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Dec 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 295.7 + Muddy River 1.1 
  + Virgin River 6.8 - Powell Release 270.2) ~ 33 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Dec - Feb Forecasts

	   Dec        65  KAF (107% of average)
	   Jan        75  KAF ( 94% of average)
	   Feb        90  KAF ( 89% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Dec 10.0 KAF ( 82% of median or  74% of average)
	   Jan 13.0 KAF ( 96% of median or  68% of average)
	   Feb 12.0 KAF ( 87% of median or  73% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Dec  0.2 KAF ( 32% of median or   4% of average) 
	   Jan  2.0 KAF (128% of median or  12% of average) 
	   Feb  3.5 KAF (174% of median or  20% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Dec  1.2 KAF (103% of median or  96% of average)
	   Jan  1.5 KAF (124% of median or  91% of average)
	   Feb  1.7 KAF (116% of median or  88% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC/S.Bender

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