SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jan 02, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January - March and seasonal 
volumes for Jan - July and Apr - July.

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DECEMBER OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data)

                       - values in KAF -
Dec observed (est.) (Colorado Diamond Ck 898.5 + Muddy River 1.2 
  + Virgin River 9.7 - Powell Release 880.1) ~ 29.3 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	   January    53  KAF ( 66% of average)
	   February   60  KAF ( 59% of average)
	   March      80  KAF ( 73% of average)

April - July Forecast:     170 KAF ( 61% of average)

January - July Forecast:   365 KAF ( 64% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan  8.5 KAF ( 63% of median or 45% of average)
	   Feb  7.8 KAF ( 57% of median or 48% of average)
	   Mar 10.0 KAF ( 68% of median or 43% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan  1.5 KAF ( 96% of median or  9% of average) 
	   Feb  2.5 KAF (125% of median or 14% of average) 
	   Mar  4.3 KAF ( 68% of median or 43% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Jan  1.2 KAF ( 99% of median or  72% of average)
	   Feb  2.0 KAF (136% of median or 103% of average)
	   Mar  2.0 KAF (123% of median or  90% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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