SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Feb 17, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April and seasonal 
volumes for Feb - July and Apr - July.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FEBRUARY OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Feb 1 - 15 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 361.6 + Muddy River 1.09
  + Virgin River 4.1 - Powell Release 314.3) ~ 52.5 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

February - April Forecasts

	   February   65  KAF ( 64% of average)
	   March      80  KAF ( 73% of average)
	   April      50  KAF ( 48% of average)

April - July Forecast:     170 KAF ( 61% of average)

February - July Forecast:  315 KAF ( 65% of average)

-----------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Feb  5.0 KAF ( 36% of median or  31% of average)
	   Mar  8.0 KAF ( 54% of median or  34% of average)
	   Apr  7.0 KAF ( 46% of median or  32% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Feb  1.0 KAF ( 50% of median or   6% of average) 
	   Mar  3.0 KAF ( 15% of median or  10% of average) 
	   Apr  1.5 KAF ( 20% of median or   8% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Feb  1.0 KAF ( 68% of median or  52% of average)
	   Mar  1.8 KAF (111% of median or  81% of average)
	   Apr  1.2 KAF (120% of median or 103% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

$$