SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Apr 17, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for April - June and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July.

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APR 1-15 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
APR 1-15 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 325.4 + Muddy River 1.13 
  + Virgin River 1.81 - Powell Release 304.1) ~ 24.2 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

April - June Forecasts

	   April      45  KAF ( 43% of average)
	   May        45  KAF ( 59% of average)
	   June       20  KAF ( 57% of average)

April - July Forecast:     145 KAF ( 52% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Apr  3.0 KAF ( 20% of median or  14% of average)
	   May  2.5 KAF ( 21% of median or  10% of average)
	   Jun  2.0 KAF ( 40% of median or  19% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Apr  0.3 KAF (  4% of median or   2% of average) 
	   May  0.5 KAF ( 51% of median or  12% of average) 
	   Jun  0.1 KAF (999% of median or  49% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Apr  0.7 KAF ( 70% of median or  60% of average)
	   May  0.4 KAF ( 92% of median or  61% of average)
	   Jun  0.2 KAF ( 73% of median or  53% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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