SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
May 18, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for May - July and the seasonal
volume for May - July.

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MAY 1-16 OBSERVED DATA: (From USGS gage data)

                       - values in KAF -
May 1-16 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 387.0 + Muddy River 1.25
  + Virgin River 3.0 - Powell Release 370.1 ) ~  21.2 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

May - July Forecasts

	   May        45  KAF ( 59% of average)
	   June       20  KAF ( 57% of average)
	   July       30  KAF ( 49% of average)


May - July Forecast:  100 KAF ( 58% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   May 4.0 KAF ( 33% of median or 16% of average)
	   Jun 2.0 KAF ( 40% of median or 19% of average)
	   Jul 2.6 KAF ( 46% of median or 38% of average)
	   

          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

           May 0.5 KAF ( 51% of median or 12% of average)
	   Jun 0.1 KAF (999% of median or 49% of average) 
	   Jul 1.0 KAF ( 46% of median or 18% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   May 0.5 KAF (115% of median or 76% of average)
	   Jun 0.2 KAF ( 73% of median or 53% of average)
	   Jun 0.6 KAF ( 94% of median or 59% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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