SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jun 16, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Jun - Aug and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July and for Jun - July.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
JUNE 1-14 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
JUNE 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 380.4 + Muddy River 1.09 
  + Virgin River 2.0 - Powell Release 362.8) ~ 20.7 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Jun - Aug Forecasts

	   June       40  KAF (114% of average)
	   July       30  KAF ( 49% of average)
	   Aug        40  KAF ( 47% of average)

Apr - July Forecast:     186 KAF ( 67% of average)
Jun - July Forecast:      70 KAF ( 73% of average)

-----------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jun  3.0 KAF ( 60% of median or  28% of average)
	   Jul  2.6 KAF ( 46% of median or  38% of average)
	   Aug  3.5 KAF ( 45% of median or  39% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jun  0.6 KAF (999% of median or 296% of average) 
	   Jul  0.7 KAF ( 32% of median or  13% of average) 
	   Aug  1.8 KAF ( 18% of median or   9% of average) 
 
          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Jun  2.1 KAF (761% of median or 557% of average)
	   Jul  0.6 KAF ( 94% of median or  59% of average)
	   Aug  1.6 KAF ( 87% of median or  71% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

$$