SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jul 16, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Jul - Sep.
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July 1-15 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
July 1-15 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 505.4 + Muddy River 1.0 
  + Virgin River 0.3 - Powell Release 484.0) ~ 22.7 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Jul - Sep Forecasts

	   July       60  KAF ( 98% of average)
	   Aug        45  KAF ( 52% of average)
	   Sep        65  KAF ( 70% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Jul - Sep Forecasts

	   July       63  KAF (103% of average)
	   Aug        50  KAF ( 58% of average)
	   Sep        87  KAF ( 94% of average)


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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jul  4.5 KAF ( 80% of median or  65% of average)
	   Aug  3.5 KAF ( 45% of median or  39% of average)
	   Sep  4.0 KAF ( 60% of median or  45% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jul  6.0 KAF (273% of median or 107% of average) 
	   Aug  2.0 KAF ( 20% of median or  10% of average) 
	   Sep  2.7 KAF ( 25% of median or  19% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Jul  1.0 KAF (157% of median or  99% of average)
	   Aug  1.6 KAF ( 87% of median or  71% of average)
	   Sep  1.3 KAF ( 97% of median or  70% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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