SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Aug 17, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Aug - Oct.
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Aug 1-15 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Aug 1-15 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 481.0 + Muddy River 1.1 
  + Virgin River 4.6 - Powell Release 398.3) ~ 88.4 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Aug - Oct Forecasts

	   Aug       100  KAF (116% of average)
	   Sep        65  KAF ( 70% of average)
	   Oct        60  KAF ( 80% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Aug - Oct Forecasts

	   Aug       137  KAF (159% of average)
	   Sep        87  KAF ( 94% of average)
	   Oct        46  KAF ( 61% of average)
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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Aug  6.0 KAF ( 78% of median or  67% of average)
	   Sep  4.0 KAF ( 60% of median or  45% of average)
	   Oct  6.5 KAF ( 60% of median or  58% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Aug 17.0 KAF (166% of median or  85% of average) 
	   Sep  2.7 KAF ( 25% of median or  19% of average) 
	   Oct  1.2 KAF ( 83% of median or  17% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Aug  2.5 KAF (135% of median or 111% of average)
	   Sep  1.3 KAF ( 97% of median or  70% of average)
	   Oct  1.1 KAF ( 75% of median or  56% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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