SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Oct 01, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Oct - Dec.
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Sep OBSERVED Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Sep observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 655.0 + Muddy River 4.0 
  + Virgin River 9.7 - Powell Release 621.3) ~ 47.4 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Oct - Dec Forecasts

	   Oct        80  KAF (107% of average)
	   Nov        53  KAF ( 93% of average)
	   Dec        55  KAF ( 90% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Oct  9.3 KAF ( 85% of median or  82% of average)
	   Nov  8.3 KAF ( 71% of median or  69% of average)
	   Dec  8.6 KAF ( 71% of median or  64% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Oct  9.0 KAF (625% of median or 125% of average) 
	   Nov  1.0 KAF (260% of median or  26% of average) 
	   Dec  1.0 KAF (158% of median or  21% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Oct  2.2 KAF (150% of median or 112% of average)
	   Nov  1.6 KAF (125% of median or 118% of average)
	   Dec  1.5 KAF (129% of median or 120% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 


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