SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Dec 15, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Dec - Feb.
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Dec 1-14 OBSERVED Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Dec 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 397.0 + Muddy River 0.7 
  + Virgin River 4.4 - Powell Release 398.3) ~ 3.8 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Dec - Feb Forecasts

	   Dec        45  KAF ( 74% of average)
	   Jan        55  KAF ( 69% of average)
	   Feb        60  KAF ( 59% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Dec 5.0 KAF ( 41% of median or  37% of average)
	   Jan 9.0 KAF ( 67% of median or  47% of average)
	   Feb 7.8 KAF ( 57% of median or  48% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Dec  0.5 KAF ( 79% of median or  11% of average) 
	   Jan  2.0 KAF (128% of median or  12% of average) 
	   Feb  3.8 KAF (189% of median or  22% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Dec  1.0 KAF ( 86% of median or  80% of average)
	   Jan  1.5 KAF (124% of median or  91% of average)
	   Feb  2.0 KAF (136% of median or 103% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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