SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Feb 16, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April and seasonal 
volumes for Feb - July and Apr - July.

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February 1-14 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Feb 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 385.4 + Muddy River 1.28 
  + Virgin River 4.5 - Powell Release 327.2) ~ 64.0 KAF  

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Feb 1-14 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 49.4 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

February - April Forecasts

	   February  100  KAF ( 99% of average)
	   March     100  KAF ( 92% of average)
	   April      65  KAF ( 62% of average)

April - July Forecast:      180 KAF ( 65% of average)

February - July Forecast:   380 KAF ( 78% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

February - April Forecasts

	   February   95  KAF ( 94% of average)
	   March      83  KAF ( 76% of average)
	   April      48  KAF ( 46% of average)

April - July Forecast:     103 KAF ( 37% of average)


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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Feb 11.0 KAF ( 80% of median or  67% of average)
	   Mar 14.0 KAF ( 95% of median or  60% of average)
	   Apr 19.0 KAF (125% of median or  86% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Feb  5.0 KAF (249% of median or  28% of average) 
	   Mar  9.0 KAF ( 44% of median or  30% of average) 
	   Apr  3.5 KAF ( 46% of median or  18% of average) 
 
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Feb  2.0 KAF (136% of median or 103% of average)
	   Mar  2.5 KAF (154% of median or 112% of average)
	   Apr  1.7 KAF (169% of median or 146% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 


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