SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Mar 01, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April and seasonal 
volumes for Mar - July and Apr - July.

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February OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Feb observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 821.8 + Muddy River 2.7 
  + Virgin River 9.0 - Powell Release 704.2) ~ 129.3 KAF  

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February Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 92.8 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	   March      90  KAF ( 83% of average)
	   April      50  KAF ( 48% of average)
	   May        55  KAF ( 72% of average)

April - July Forecast:     170 KAF ( 61% of average)

March - July Forecast:     260 KAF ( 67% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	   March      63  KAF ( 58% of average)
	   April      37  KAF ( 35% of average)
	   May        56  KAF ( 73% of average)

April - July Forecast:      96 KAF ( 35% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Mar  8.0 KAF ( 54% of median or  34% of average)
	   Apr 12.0 KAF ( 79% of median or  54% of average)
	   May 12.0 KAF (100% of median or  48% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Mar  4.0 KAF ( 20% of median or  13% of average) 
	   Apr  2.5 KAF ( 33% of median or  13% of average) 
	   May  0.5 KAF ( 51% of median or  12% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Mar  1.9 KAF ( 117% of median or  85% of average)
	   Apr  1.5 KAF ( 149% of median or 129% of average)
	   May  0.5 KAF ( 115% of median or  76% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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