SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Apr 18, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for April - June and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July.

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APR 1-15 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
APR 1-15 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 365.0 + Muddy River 1.86 
  + Virgin River 7.5 - Powell Release 341.4) ~ 33.0 KAF  

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March Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 59.0 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

April - June Forecasts

	   April      85  KAF ( 81% of average)
	   May        55  KAF ( 72% of average)
	   June       20  KAF ( 57% of average)

April - July Forecast:     180 KAF ( 65% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

April - June Forecasts

	   April      63  KAF ( 60% of average)
	   May        17  KAF ( 23% of average)
	   June       31  KAF ( 88% of average)

April - July Forecast:     103 KAF ( 37% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Apr 16.0 KAF (105% of median or  72% of average)
	   May 13.0 KAF (109% of median or  52% of average)
	   Jun  5.0 KAF (100% of median or  47% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Apr  2.0 KAF ( 26% of median or  10% of average) 
	   May  0.5 KAF ( 51% of median or  12% of average) 
	   Jun  0.1 KAF (999% of median or  25% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Apr  1.1 KAF (110% of median or  94% of average)
	   May  0.5 KAF (115% of median or  76% of average)
	   Jun  0.3 KAF (109% of median or  80% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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