SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
May 02, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for May - July and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July and for May - July.

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APR OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
APR observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 729.1 + Muddy River 3.3 
  + Virgin River 14.1 - Powell Release 681.3) ~ 65.2 KAF  

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April Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 111.3 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

May - July Forecasts

	   May        85  KAF (112% of average)
	   June       20  KAF ( 57% of average)
	   July       33  KAF ( 54% of average)

Apr - July Forecast:     203 KAF ( 73% of average)
May - July Forecast:     138 KAF ( 80% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

May - July Forecasts

	   May        48  KAF ( 63% of average)
	   June       31  KAF ( 89% of average)
	   July       58  KAF ( 95% of average)

Apr - July Forecast:     121 KAF ( 44% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   May 16.0 KAF (134% of median or  64% of average)
	   Jun  5.0 KAF (100% of median or  47% of average)
	   Jul  3.0 KAF ( 53% of median or  43% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   May  0.8 KAF ( 82% of median or  19% of average) 
	   Jun  0.1 KAF (999% of median or  20% of average) 
	   Jul  1.0 KAF ( 46% of median or  18% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   May  0.5 KAF (115% of median or  76% of average)
	   Jun  0.3 KAF (109% of median or  80% of average)
	   Jul  1.0 KAF (157% of median or  99% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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