SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jun 15, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Jun - Aug and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July and for Jun - July.

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JUNE 1-14 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
JUNE 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 391.7 + Muddy River 0.91 
  + Virgin River 3.7 - Powell Release 377.7) ~ 18.6 KAF  

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June1-14 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 15.9 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Jun - Aug Forecasts

	   June       55  KAF (157% of average)
	   July       33  KAF ( 54% of average)
	   Aug        49  KAF ( 57% of average)

Apr - July Forecast:     233 KAF ( 84% of average)
Jun - July Forecast:      88 KAF ( 92% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Jun - Aug Forecasts

	   June        28  KAF ( 80% of average)
	   July        14  KAF ( 23% of average)
	   Aug         50  KAF ( 58% of average)

Apr - July Forecast:     103 KAF ( 37% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jun  3.8 KAF ( 76% of median or  36% of average)
	   Jul  2.7 KAF ( 48% of median or  39% of average)
	   Aug  3.9 KAF ( 51% of median or  43% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jun  0.1 KAF (999% of median or  20% of average) 
	   Jul  0.5 KAF ( 23% of median or   9% of average) 
	   Aug  2.4 KAF ( 23% of median or  12% of average) 
 
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jun  0.2 KAF ( 73% of median or  53% of average)
	   Jul  1.0 KAF (157% of median or  99% of average)
	   Aug  1.6 KAF ( 87% of median or  71% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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