SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jul 18, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Jul - Sep.
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July 1-14 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
July 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 455.2 + Muddy River 1.2 
  + Virgin River 0.9 - Powell Release 436.0) ~ 21.3 KAF  

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July 1-14 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 30.0 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Jul - Sep Forecasts

	   July       65  KAF (107% of average)
	   Aug        49  KAF ( 57% of average)
	   Sep        60  KAF ( 65% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Jul - Sep Forecasts

	   July       42  KAF ( 68% of average)
	   Aug        50  KAF ( 58% of average)
	   Sep        48  KAF ( 52% of average)


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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jul  5.0 KAF ( 88% of median or  72% of average)
	   Aug  3.9 KAF ( 51% of median or  43% of average)
	   Sep  4.5 KAF ( 67% of median or  51% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jul  0.5 KAF ( 23% of median or   9% of average) 
	   Aug  2.4 KAF ( 23% of median or  12% of average) 
	   Sep  2.8 KAF ( 26% of median or  20% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jul  1.0 KAF (157% of median or  99% of average)
	   Aug  1.6 KAF ( 87% of median or  71% of average)
	   Sep  1.4 KAF (105% of median or  76% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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