SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Aug 17, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Aug - Oct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug 1-14 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Aug 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 496.3 + Muddy River 1.0 
  + Virgin River 4.3 - Powell Release 415.7) ~ 85.9 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Aug 1-14 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 42.2 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Aug - Oct Forecasts

	   Aug       108  KAF (126% of average)
	   Sep        60  KAF ( 65% of average)
	   Oct        57  KAF ( 76% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Aug - Oct Forecasts

	   Aug       101  KAF (117% of average)
	   Sep        48  KAF ( 51% of average)
	   Oct        28  KAF ( 38% of average)
-----------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Aug 10.8 KAF (140% of median or 120% of average)
	   Sep  4.5 KAF ( 67% of median or  51% of average)
	   Oct  7.0 KAF ( 64% of median or  62% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Aug 10.5 KAF (102% of median or  52% of average) 
	   Sep  2.6 KAF ( 24% of median or  19% of average) 
	   Oct  0.3 KAF ( 21% of median or   4% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Aug  2.2 KAF (119% of median or  97% of average)
	   Sep  1.4 KAF (105% of median or  76% of average)
	   Oct  1.2 KAF ( 82% of median or  61% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

$$