SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Sep 01, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Sep - Nov.
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Aug OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Aug observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 1151.2 + Muddy River 4.6 
  + Virgin River 5.4 - Powell Release 920.1) ~ 241.1 KAF  

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Aug Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 105.7 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Sep - Nov Forecasts

	   Sep        58  KAF ( 62% of average)
	   Oct        57  KAF ( 76% of average)
	   Nov        43  KAF ( 75% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Sep - Nov Forecasts

	   Sep        46  KAF ( 49% of average)
	   Oct        28  KAF ( 37% of average)
	   Nov        10  KAF ( 18% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Sep  4.5 KAF ( 67% of median or  51% of average)
	   Oct  7.0 KAF ( 64% of median or  62% of average)
	   Nov  7.8 KAF ( 67% of median or  65% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Sep  0.5 KAF (  5% of median or   4% of average) 
	   Oct  0.3 KAF ( 21% of median or   4% of average) 
	   Nov  0.1 KAF ( 26% of median or   3% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Sep  1.2 KAF ( 90% of median or  65% of average)
	   Oct  1.2 KAF ( 82% of median or  61% of average)
	   Nov  1.1 KAF ( 86% of median or  81% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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