SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Oct 01, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Oct - Dec.
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Sep OBSERVED Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Sep observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 841.8 + Muddy River 1.9 
  + Virgin River 1.8 - Powell Release 729.9) ~ 115.6 KAF  

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Sep Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 83.7 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Oct - Dec Forecasts

	   Oct        70  KAF ( 93% of average)
	   Nov        48  KAF ( 84% of average)
	   Dec        46  KAF ( 75% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Sep - Nov Forecasts

	   Oct        54  KAF ( 72% of average)
	   Nov        37  KAF ( 65% of average)
	   Dec        43  KAF ( 71% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Oct  7.0 KAF ( 64% of median or  62% of average)
	   Nov  7.5 KAF ( 64% of median or  62% of average)
	   Dec  7.8 KAF ( 64% of median or  58% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Oct  1.0 KAF ( 69% of median or  14% of average) 
	   Nov  0.5 KAF (130% of median or  13% of average) 
	   Dec  0.5 KAF ( 79% of median or  11% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Oct  1.5 KAF (102% of median or  77% of average)
	   Nov  1.3 KAF (101% of median or  95% of average)
	   Dec  1.2 KAF (103% of median or  96% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 


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