SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Nov 02, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for November - January.
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OCT OBSERVED DATA: (From USGS gage data)

                       - values in KAF -
Oct observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 744.4 + Muddy River 12.9 
  + Virgin River 13.7 - Powell Release 616.6 ) ~ 154.4 KAF  

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OCt Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 155.0 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

November - January Forecasts

	   November   60  KAF (105% of average)
	   December   50  KAF ( 82% of average)
	   January    57  KAF ( 71% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Sep - Nov Forecasts

	   November   46  KAF ( 81% of average)
	   December   46  KAF ( 75% of average)
	   January    44  KAF ( 55% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov  8.0 KAF ( 68% of median or  66% of average)
	   Dec  7.8 KAF ( 64% of median or  58% of average)
	   Jan  9.2 KAF ( 68% of median or  48% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov  0.5 KAF (130% of median or  13% of average) 
	   Dec  0.5 KAF ( 79% of median or  11% of average) 
	   Jan  2.7 KAF (173% of median or  17% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Nov  1.8 KAF (140% of median or 132% of average)
	   Dec  1.5 KAF (129% of median or 120% of average)
	   Jan  1.6 KAF (132% of median or  97% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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