SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Nov 16, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Nov - Jan.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Nov 1-14 Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Nov 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 313.6 + Muddy River 1.2 
  + Virgin River 3.4 - Powell Release 272.7) ~ 45.5 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Nov 1-14 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 31.4 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Nov - Jan Forecasts

	   Nov        70  KAF (123% of average)
	   Dec        50  KAF ( 82% of average)
	   Jan        57  KAF ( 71% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Nov - Jan Forecasts

	   November   53  KAF ( 93% of average)
	   December   46  KAF ( 75% of average)
	   January    44  KAF ( 55% of average)

-----------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov  8.0 KAF ( 68% of median or  66% of average)
	   Dec  7.8 KAF ( 64% of median or  58% of average)
	   Jan  9.2 KAF ( 68% of median or  48% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov  0.8 KAF (208% of median or  21% of average) 
	   Dec  0.5 KAF ( 79% of median or  11% of average) 
	   Jan  2.7 KAF (173% of median or  17% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Nov  1.8 KAF (140% of median or 132% of average)
	   Dec  1.5 KAF (129% of median or 120% of average)
	   Jan  1.6 KAF (132% of median or  97% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

$$