SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jan 3, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January - March and seasonal 
volumes for Jan - July and Apr - July.

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DECEMBER OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data)

                       - values in KAF -
Dec observed (est.) (Colorado Diamond Ck 958.6 + Muddy River 2.9 
  + Virgin River 17.7 - Powell Release 913.0) ~ 66.2 KAF  

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Dec Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 67.9 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	   January    80  KAF (100% of average)
	   February   65  KAF ( 64% of average)
	   March     100  KAF ( 92% of average)

April - July Forecast:     170 KAF ( 61% of average)

January - July Forecast:   415 KAF ( 73% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	   January    54  KAF ( 68% of average)
	   February   48  KAF ( 48% of average)
	   March      45  KAF ( 41% of average)


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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan 16.7 KAF (123% of median or 87% of average)
	   Feb 10.5 KAF ( 76% of median or 64% of average)
	   Mar 14.2 KAF ( 96% of median or 60% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan  5.0 KAF (320% of median or 31% of average) 
	   Feb  4.6 KAF (229% of median or 26% of average) 
	   Mar 11.8 KAF ( 58% of median or 39% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jan  2.7 KAF (223% of median or 163% of average)
	   Feb  2.0 KAF (136% of median or 103% of average)
	   Mar  2.6 KAF (160% of median or 117% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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