SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jan 17, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January - March and seasonal 
volumes for Jan - July and Apr - July.

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JANUARY 1-16 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Jan 1-16 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 508.0 + Muddy River 1.39 
  + Virgin River 14.3 - Powell Release 462.5) ~ 61.2 KAF  

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Jan 1-16 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 65.4 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	   January   110  KAF (138% of average)
	   February   81  KAF ( 80% of average)
	   March     136  KAF (125% of average)

April - July Forecast:     270 KAF ( 97% of average)

January - July Forecast:   597 KAF (105% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	   January    88  KAF (110% of average)
	   February   65  KAF ( 64% of average)
	   March      92  KAF ( 84% of average)


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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan 16.7 KAF (123% of median or 87% of average)
	   Feb 14.5 KAF (105% of median or 88% of average)
	   Mar 18.3 KAF (124% of median or 78% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan 15.0 KAF (959% of median or 92% of average) 
	   Feb 10.0 KAF (498% of median or 57% of average) 
	   Mar 28.0 KAF (137% of median or 93% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jan  2.8 KAF (232% of median or 169% of average)
	   Feb  3.3 KAF (225% of median or 171% of average)
	   Mar  3.7 KAF (227% of median or 166% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 


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