SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Feb 01, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April and seasonal 
volumes for Feb - July and Apr - July.

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JANUARY OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Jan observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 964.6 + Muddy River 2.7 
  + Virgin River 30.0 - Powell Release 900.1) ~ 97.2 KAF  

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January Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 114.2 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

February - April Forecasts

	   February   77  KAF ( 76% of average)
	   March     125  KAF (115% of average)
	   April      85  KAF ( 81% of average)

April - July Forecast:     240 KAF ( 87% of average)

February - July Forecast:  442 KAF ( 91% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

February - April Forecasts

	   February   61  KAF ( 60% of average)
	   March      77  KAF ( 71% of average)
	   April      36  KAF ( 34% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Feb 16.1 KAF (117% of median or  98% of average)
	   Mar 21.5 KAF (146% of median or  91% of average)
	   Apr 25.4 KAF (167% of median or 115% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Feb  7.8 KAF (388% of median or  44% of average) 
	   Mar 22.6 KAF (110% of median or  75% of average) 
	   Apr  9.0 KAF (117% of median or  45% of average) 
 
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Feb  3.7 KAF (252% of median or 191% of average)
	   Mar  3.7 KAF (227% of median or 166% of average)
	   Apr  2.2 KAF (219% of median or 189% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 


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