SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Feb 15, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April and seasonal 
volumes for Feb - July and Apr - July.

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February 1-14 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Feb 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 391.3 + Muddy River 1.20 
  + Virgin River 25.0 - Powell Release 363.4) ~ 54.1 KAF  

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Feb 1-14 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 32.7 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

February - April Forecasts

	   February  107  KAF (106% of average)
	   March     125  KAF (115% of average)
	   April      85  KAF ( 81% of average)

April - July Forecast:      240 KAF ( 87% of average)

February - July Forecast:   472 KAF ( 97% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

February - April Forecasts

	   February   93  KAF ( 92% of average)
	   March      77  KAF ( 71% of average)
	   April      36  KAF ( 34% of average)


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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Feb 18.5 KAF (134% of median or 113% of average)
	   Mar 19.1 KAF (129% of median or  81% of average)
	   Apr 27.2 KAF (179% of median or 123% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Feb 19.1 KAF (951% of median or 109% of average) 
	   Mar 22.0 KAF (107% of median or  73% of average) 
	   Apr  6.0 KAF ( 78% of median or  30% of average) 
 
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Feb  4.6 KAF (313% of median or 238% of average)
	   Mar  3.2 KAF (197% of median or 144% of average)
	   Apr  2.1 KAF (209% of median or 180% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 


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