SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Mar 01, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April and seasonal 
volumes for Mar - July and Apr - July.

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February OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Feb observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 805.1 + Muddy River 2.3 
  + Virgin River 38.0 - Powell Release 720.6) ~ 124.8 KAF  

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February Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 140.1 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	   March     107  KAF ( 98% of average)
	   April      79  KAF ( 75% of average)
	   May        70  KAF ( 92% of average)

April - July Forecast:     240 KAF ( 87% of average)

March - July Forecast:     345 KAF ( 90% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	   March      54  KAF ( 50% of average)
	   April      29  KAF ( 28% of average)
	   May        10  KAF ( 13% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Mar 12.4 KAF ( 84% of median or  53% of average)
	   Apr 24.0 KAF (158% of median or 109% of average)
	   May 23.0 KAF (192% of median or  92% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Mar 25.0 KAF (122% of median or  83% of average) 
	   Apr  8.0 KAF (104% of median or  40% of average) 
	   May  2.8 KAF (287% of median or  66% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Mar  2.5 KAF (154% of median or 112% of average)
	   Apr  1.9 KAF (189% of median or 163% of average)
	   May  1.0 KAF (230% of median or 151% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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