SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Apr 01, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for April - June and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July.

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March OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
March observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 807.3 + Muddy River 3.0 
  + Virgin River 17.2 - Powell Release 729.7) ~ 97.8 KAF  

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March Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 136.9 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

April - June Forecasts

	   April      63  KAF ( 60% of average)
	   May        61  KAF ( 80% of average)
	   June       24  KAF ( 69% of average)

April - July Forecast:     186 KAF ( 67% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

April - June Forecasts

	   April      12  KAF ( 11% of average)
	   May         5  KAF (  7% of average)
	   June       27  KAF ( 77% of average)


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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Apr 19.5 KAF (128% of median or  88% of average)
	   May 16.8 KAF (140% of median or  67% of average)
	   Jun  5.6 KAF (112% of median or  53% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Apr  2.0 KAF ( 26% of median or  10% of average) 
	   May  2.2 KAF (225% of median or  52% of average) 
	   Jun  0.5 KAF (999% of median or 246% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Apr  1.6 KAF (159% of median or 137% of average)
	   May  0.8 KAF (184% of median or 121% of average)
	   Jun  0.5 KAF (181% of median or 133% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

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