SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
May 01, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for May - July and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July and for May - July.

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APR OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
APR observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 693.4 + Muddy River 2.6 
  + Virgin River 27.0 - Powell Release 633.6) ~ 89.4 KAF  

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April Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 142.4 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

May - July Forecasts

	   May        58  KAF ( 76% of average)
	   June       23  KAF ( 66% of average)
	   July       37  KAF ( 61% of average)

Apr - July Forecast:     207 KAF ( 75% of average)
May - July Forecast:     118 KAF ( 69% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

May - July Forecasts

	   May         5  KAF (  7% of average)
	   June       27  KAF ( 77% of average)
	   July       17  KAF ( 28% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   May 13.9 KAF (116% of median or  56% of average)
	   Jun  4.7 KAF ( 94% of median or  45% of average)
	   Jul  4.4 KAF ( 78% of median or  63% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   May  2.2 KAF (225% of median or  52% of average) 
	   Jun  0.6 KAF (999% of median or 296% of average) 
	   Jul  0.3 KAF ( 14% of median or   5% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   May  0.7 KAF (161% of median or 106% of average)
	   Jun  0.5 KAF (181% of median or 133% of average)
	   Jul  0.9 KAF (141% of median or  89% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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