SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jun 15, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Jun - Aug and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July and for Jun - July.

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JUNE 1-14 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
JUNE 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 356.2 + Muddy River 1.07 
  + Virgin River 1.44 - Powell Release 352.7) ~ 6.0 KAF  

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June 1-14 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 15.7 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Jun - Aug Forecasts

	   June       24  KAF ( 69% of average)
	   July       36  KAF ( 59% of average)
	   Aug        55  KAF ( 64% of average)

Apr - July Forecast:     195 KAF ( 70% of average)
Jun - July Forecast:      60 KAF ( 63% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Jun - Aug Forecasts

	   June        27  KAF ( 77% of average)
	   July        16  KAF ( 26% of average)
	   Aug         55  KAF ( 64% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jun  4.9 KAF ( 98% of median or  46% of average)
	   Jul  4.5 KAF ( 80% of median or  65% of average)
	   Aug  6.3 KAF ( 82% of median or  70% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jun  0.6 KAF (999% of median or 296% of average) 
	   Jul  0.3 KAF ( 14% of median or   5% of average) 
	   Aug  2.5 KAF ( 24% of median or  13% of average) 
 
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jun  0.5 KAF (181% of median or 133% of average)
	   Jul  0.9 KAF (141% of median or  89% of average)
	   Aug  1.8 KAF ( 97% of median or  80% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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