SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jul 03, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Jul - Sep.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
JUNE OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
JUNE observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 773.9 + Muddy River 2.4 
  + Virgin River 1.7 - Powell Release 757.7) ~ 20.2 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------

June Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 55.2 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Jul - Sep Forecasts

	   July       35  KAF ( 57% of average)
	   Aug        53  KAF ( 62% of average)
	   Sep        62  KAF ( 67% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Jul - Sep Forecasts

	   July       16  KAF ( 26% of average)
	   Aug        53  KAF ( 62% of average)
	   Sep        50  KAF ( 57% of average)

-----------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jul  4.2 KAF ( 74% of median or  61% of average)
	   Aug  6.3 KAF ( 82% of median or  70% of average)
	   Sep  6.7 KAF (100% of median or  75% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jul  0.2 KAF (  9% of median or   4% of average) 
	   Aug  2.5 KAF ( 24% of median or  13% of average) 
	   Sep  3.0 KAF ( 27% of median or  21% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jul  0.9 KAF (141% of median or  89% of average)
	   Aug  1.8 KAF ( 97% of median or  80% of average)
	   Sep  1.6 KAF (120% of median or  87% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

$$