SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Aug 15, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Aug - Oct.
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Aug 1-14 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Aug 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 437.8 + Muddy River 1.1 
  + Virgin River 2.1 - Powell Release 417.3) ~ 23.7 KAF  

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Aug 1-14 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 45.1 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Aug - Oct Forecasts

	   Aug        51  KAF ( 59% of average)
	   Sep        64  KAF ( 69% of average)
	   Oct        69  KAF ( 92% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Aug - Oct Forecasts

	   Aug        52  KAF ( 60% of average)
	   Sep        52  KAF ( 56% of average)
	   Oct        37  KAF ( 49% of average)
       
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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Aug  7.0 KAF ( 91% of median or  78% of average)
	   Sep  6.2 KAF ( 93% of median or  70% of average)
	   Oct  8.6 KAF ( 79% of median or  76% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Aug 10.0 KAF ( 97% of median or  50% of average) 
	   Sep  3.0 KAF ( 27% of median or  21% of average) 
	   Oct  0.3 KAF ( 21% of median or   4% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Aug  1.6 KAF ( 87% of median or  71% of average)
	   Sep  1.6 KAF (120% of median or  87% of average)
	   Oct  1.4 KAF ( 92% of median or  71% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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