SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Sep 15, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Sep - Nov.
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Aug OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Aug observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 336.8 + Muddy River 1.1 
  + Virgin River 1.0 - Powell Release 318.3) ~ 20.6 KAF  

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Aug Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 52.8 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Sep - Nov Forecasts

	   Sep        55  KAF ( 59% of average)
	   Oct        67  KAF ( 89% of average)
	   Nov        49  KAF ( 86% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Sep - Nov Forecasts

	   Sep        42  KAF ( 46% of average)
	   Oct        35  KAF ( 47% of average)
	   Nov        16  KAF ( 28% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Sep  6.5 KAF ( 97% of median or  73% of average)
	   Oct  8.6 KAF ( 79% of median or  76% of average)
	   Nov  9.2 KAF ( 79% of median or  76% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Sep  0.2 KAF (  2% of median or   1% of average) 
	   Oct  0.3 KAF ( 21% of median or   4% of average) 
	   Nov  0.1 KAF ( 26% of median or   3% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Sep  0.7 KAF ( 52% of median or  38% of average)
	   Oct  1.0 KAF ( 68% of median or  51% of average)
	   Nov  1.0 KAF ( 78% of median or  73% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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