SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Oct 17, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Oct - Dec.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct 1-15 OBSERVED Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Oct observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 323.2 + Muddy River 1.1 
  + Virgin River 3.1 - Powell Release 297.8) ~ 29.6 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct 1-15 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 50.9 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------

FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Oct - Dec Forecasts

	   Oct        58  KAF ( 77% of average)
	   Nov        43  KAF ( 75% of average)
	   Dec        48  KAF ( 79% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Sep - Nov Forecasts

	   Oct        29  KAF ( 39% of average)
	   Nov        10  KAF ( 18% of average)
	   Dec        15  KAF ( 25% of average)

-----------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Oct  7.0 KAF ( 64% of median or  62% of average)
	   Nov  7.6 KAF ( 65% of median or  63% of average)
	   Dec  8.0 KAF ( 66% of median or  59% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Oct  2.2 KAF (153% of median or  31% of average) 
	   Nov  0.1 KAF ( 26% of median or   3% of average) 
	   Dec  0.5 KAF ( 79% of median or  11% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Oct  1.5 KAF (102% of median or  77% of average)
	   Nov  1.3 KAF (101% of median or  95% of average)
	   Dec  1.2 KAF (103% of median or  96% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *  

CBRFC

NNNN

$$