SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Nov 16, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Nov - Jan.
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Nov 1-14 Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Nov 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 503.6 + Muddy River 1.2 
  + Virgin River 4.6 - Powell Release 479.4) ~ 30.0 KAF  

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Nov 1-14 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 51.0 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Nov - Jan Forecasts

	   Nov        50  KAF (123% of average)
	   December   39  KAF ( 64% of average)
	   January    41  KAF ( 51% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Sep - Nov Forecasts

	   November   17  KAF ( 30% of average)
	   December    7  KAF ( 11% of average)
	   January    10  KAF ( 13% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov  7.0 KAF ( 60% of median or  58% of average)
	   Dec  6.5 KAF ( 54% of median or  48% of average)
	   Jan  5.7 KAF ( 42% of median or  30% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov  4.1 KAF (999% of median or 107% of average) 
	   Dec  0.1 KAF ( 16% of median or   2% of average) 
	   Jan  0.5 KAF ( 32% of median or   3% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Nov  1.0 KAF ( 78% of median or  73% of average)
	   Dec  0.9 KAF ( 78% of median or  72% of average)
	   Jan  0.8 KAF ( 66% of median or  48% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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