SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Dec 01, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Dec - Feb.
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Nov OBSERVED Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Nov observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 744.7 Muddy River 2.6 
  + Virgin River 9.3 - Powell Release 731.0) ~ 25.6 KAF  

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Nov Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 119.8 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Dec - Feb Forecasts

	   Dec        41  KAF ( 67% of average)
	   Jan        41  KAF ( 51% of average)
	   Feb        33  KAF ( 33% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Dec - Feb Forecasts

	   Dec         9  KAF ( 14% of average)
	   Jan        10  KAF ( 13% of average)
	   Feb        13  KAF ( 13% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Dec 6.8 KAF ( 56% of median or  50% of average)
	   Jan 5.8 KAF ( 43% of median or  30% of average)
	   Feb 1.2 KAF (  9% of median or   7% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Dec  0.3 KAF ( 47% of median or   6% of average) 
	   Jan  0.5 KAF ( 32% of median or   3% of average) 
	   Feb  1.0 KAF ( 50% of median or   6% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Dec  0.8 KAF ( 69% of median or  64% of average)
	   Jan  0.8 KAF ( 66% of median or  48% of average)
	   Feb  0.7 KAF ( 48% of median or  36% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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