SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
June 1, 2018


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for June - Aug.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
May 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
May 1-31 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 743.3 + Muddy River 1.7 
  + Virgin River 3.0 - BOR Powell Release 704.7) ~ 43.3 KAF

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

June - August Forecasts

	   June       24  KAF (69% of average)
	   July       37  KAF (61% of average)
	   August     56  KAF (65% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

June - August Forecasts

	  June        5.8  KAF
	  July       38.6  KAF
	  August     72.1  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)


-------------------------------------------------------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jun  1.8 KAF (36% of median or 17% of average)
	   Jul  2.7 KAF (48% of median or 39% of average)
	   Aug  4.1 KAF (53% of median or 46% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jun  0.0 KAF ( 0% of median or  0% of average)
	   Jul  0.3 KAF (14% of median or  5% of average)
	   Aug  2.0 KAF (20% of median or 10% of average)
 
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jun  0.1 KAF (36% of median or 27% of average)
	   Jul  0.3 KAF (47% of median or 30% of average)
	   Aug  1.1 KAF (60% of median or 49% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC