SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
July 2, 2018


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for July - September.

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June 1-30 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
June 1-30 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 841.8 + Muddy River 2.2 
  + Virgin River 3.7 - BOR Powell Release 760.0) ~ 87.7 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

July - September Forecasts

	   July       46  KAF (75% of average)
	   August     65  KAF (76% of average)
	   September  70  KAF (75% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

July - September Forecasts

	  July       45.8  KAF
	  August     83.2  KAF
	  September  60.4  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)


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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jul  4.3 KAF (76% of median or 62% of average)
	   Aug  5.8 KAF (75% of median or 65% of average)
	   Sep  5.0 KAF (75% of median or 56% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jul  1.7 KAF (77% of median or 30% of average)
	   Aug  8.0 KAF (78% of median or 40% of average)
	   Sep  7.0 KAF (64% of median or 50% of average)
 
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jul  0.5 KAF (78% of median or 49% of average)
	   Aug  1.4 KAF (76% of median or 62% of average)
	   Sep  1.0 KAF (75% of median or 54% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC