SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
August 1, 2018


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for August - October.

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July 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -

(Colorado Diamond Ck 998.5 + Muddy River 2.8 + 
Virgin River 2.9 - BOR Powell Release 860.0) ~ 144.2 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

August - October Forecasts

	   August     85  KAF (93% of average)
	   September  65  KAF (86% of average)
	   October    55  KAF (76% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

August - October Forecasts

	  August     98.2  KAF
	  September  56.4  KAF
	  October    43.9  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)


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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Aug  7.5 KAF (97% of median or 84% of average)
	   Sep  5.0 KAF (75% of median or 56% of average)
	   Oct  7.8 KAF (72% of median or 69% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Aug  10.0 KAF (97% of median or 50% of average)
	   Sep  8.6 KAF (78% of median or 62% of average)
	   Oct  1.2 KAF (83% of median or 17% of average)
 
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Aug  1.5 KAF (81% of median or 66% of average)
	   Sep  1.1 KAF (82% of median or 60% of average)
	   Oct  1.0 KAF (75% of median or 54% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC