SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
August 30, 2018


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for September - November.

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August 1-29 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -

(Colorado Diamond Ck 993.5 + Muddy River 2.1 + 
Virgin River 12.0 - BOR Powell Release 837.2) ~ 170.4 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

September - November Forecasts

	   September  69  KAF (91% of average)
	   October    68  KAF (94% of average)
	   November   60  KAF (90% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

September - November Forecasts

	  September  65.1  KAF
	  October    51.8  KAF
	  November   48.0  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Sep  7.9 KAF (118% of median or 89% of average)
	   Oct 10.3 KAF ( 94% of median or 91% of average)
	   Nov 11.0 KAF ( 94% of median or 91% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Sep 10.6 KAF ( 97% of median or 76% of average)
	   Oct  5.5 KAF (382% of median or 76% of average)
	   Nov  2.9 KAF (753% of median or 76% of average)
 
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Sep  1.7 KAF (127% of median or 92% of average)
	   Oct  1.7 KAF (116% of median or 87% of average)
	   Nov  1.3 KAF (101% of median or 95% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC