SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Oct 16, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Oct - Dec.
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Oct 1-15 OBSERVED Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Oct observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 317.4 + Muddy River 1.0 
  + Virgin River 1.7 - Powell Release 291.2) ~ 28.9 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Oct - Dec Forecasts

	   Oct        65  KAF ( 87% of average)
	   Nov        49  KAF ( 86% of average)
	   Dec        52  KAF ( 85% of average)
       
Lake Mead Evaporation Coefficients to Adjust Intervening Flow:

Oct - Dec CBRFC Evaporation amounts

	   Oct        N/A  KAF
	   Nov        N/A  KAF
	   Dec        N/A  KAF
       
Equation to use: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + Bankstorage(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Oct  7.0 KAF ( 64% of median or  62% of average)
	   Nov  9.0 KAF ( 77% of median or  75% of average)
	   Dec  9.3 KAF ( 77% of median or  69% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Oct  0.4 KAF ( 28% of median or   6% of average) 
	   Nov  0.1 KAF ( 26% of median or   3% of average) 
	   Dec  1.2 KAF (190% of median or  25% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Oct  0.5 KAF ( 34% of median or  26% of average)
	   Nov  0.9 KAF ( 70% of median or  66% of average)
	   Dec  0.8 KAF ( 69% of median or  64% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 


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