SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Nov 15, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Nov - Jan.
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Nov 1-14 Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Nov 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 317.1 + Muddy River 1.1 
  + Virgin River 4.4 - Powell Release 292.2) ~ 30.4 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

November - January Forecasts

	   November   56  KAF ( 98% of average)
	   December   49  KAF ( 80% of average)
	   January    57  KAF ( 71% of average)
       
Lake Mead Evaporation Coefficients to Adjust Intervening Flow:

Nov - Jan CBRFC Evaporation amounts

	   November  N/A  KAF
	   December  N/A  KAF
	   January   N/A  KAF
       
Equation to use: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + Bankstorage(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov  7.4 KAF ( 63% of median or  61% of average)
	   Dec  8.9 KAF ( 73% of median or  66% of average)
	   Jan 10.0 KAF ( 74% of median or  52% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov  0.1 KAF ( 26% of median or   3% of average) 
	   Dec  0.5 KAF ( 79% of median or  11% of average) 
	   Jan  4.0 KAF (256% of median or  25% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Nov  0.5 KAF ( 39% of median or  37% of average)
	   Dec  0.8 KAF ( 69% of median or  64% of average)
	   Jan  0.9 KAF ( 74% of median or  54% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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