SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
January 2, 2019


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January - March.

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December 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -

(Colorado Diamond Ck 777.1 + Muddy River 2.6 + 
Virgin River 8.3 - BOR Powell Release 719.7) ~ 68.3 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	   January    56  KAF (55% of average)
           February   62  KAF (64% of average)
           March      76  KAF (62% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	  January    72.4  KAF
          February   63.9  KAF
          March      57.0  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan  7.4 KAF (59% of median or 41% of average)
           Feb  6.5 KAF (53% of median or 42% of average)
           Mar  9.6 KAF (67% of median or 44% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan  0.5 KAF ( 48% of median or  4% of average)
           Feb  3.5 KAF (268% of median or 22% of average)
           Mar  6.1 KAF ( 33% of median or 22% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jan  0.9 KAF ( 74% of median or 56% of average)
           Feb  1.6 KAF (119% of median or 88% of average)
           Mar  1.9 KAF (118% of median or 87% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC