SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
March 18, 2019


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for March - May.

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March 1-17 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -

(Colorado Diamond Ck 529.4 + Muddy River 1.6 + 
Virgin River 30.7 - BOR Powell Release 438.0) ~ 123.7 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	  March     190  KAF (156% of average)
          April     115  KAF (120% of average)
          May        93  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	  March     187.4  KAF
          April      97.0  KAF
          May        66.6  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Mar 41.3 KAF (288% of median or 188% of average)
           Apr 29.5 KAF (206% of median or 137% of average)
           May 35.6 KAF (316% of median or 147% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Mar 82.0 KAF ( 441% of median or 298% of average)
           Apr 18.2 KAF ( 392% of median or 104% of average)
           May  2.7 KAF (2143% of median or  75% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Mar 7.8 KAF (484% of median or 359% of average)
           Apr 4.3 KAF (490% of median or 385% of average)
           May 1.7 KAF (376% of median or 260% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC