SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
June 17, 2019


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for June - August.

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June 1-16 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -

(Colorado Diamond Ck 444.3 + Muddy River 1.2 + 
Virgin River 21.8 - BOR Powell Release 404.0) ~ 63.3 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

June - August Forecasts

	  June       85  KAF (137% of average)
          July       63  KAF (100% of average)
          August     90  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

June - August Forecasts

	  June       64.4  KAF
          July       64.1  KAF
          August    101.8  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jun  26.9 KAF (583% of median or 263% of average)
           Jul   7.1 KAF (122% of median or 100% of average)
           Aug   9.1 KAF (117% of median or 100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jun   0.1 KAF (1000% of median or  56% of average)
           Jul   6.3 KAF ( 256% of median or 100% of average)
           Aug  19.3 KAF ( 186% of median or 100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jun   0.9 KAF (318% of median or 203% of average)
           Jul   1.0 KAF (151% of median or 101% of average)
           Aug   2.4 KAF (110% of median or 100% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC