SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
July 16, 2019


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for July - September.

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July 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -

(Colorado Diamond Ck 427.4 + Muddy River 1.2 + 
Virgin River 2.9 - BOR Powell Release 400.0) ~ 31.5 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

July - September Forecasts

	  July       63  KAF (100% of average)
          August     90  KAF (100% of average)
          September  76  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

July - September Forecasts

	  July       61.0  KAF
          August    101.7  KAF
          September  70.7  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jul   6.6 KAF (113% of median or  93% of average)
           Aug   9.1 KAF (117% of median or 100% of average)
           Sep   9.7 KAF (130% of median or 100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jul   3.3 KAF (134% of median or  52% of average)
           Aug  19.3 KAF (186% of median or 100% of average)
           Sep  13.9 KAF (118% of median or 100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jul   0.6 KAF ( 91% of median or  61% of average)
           Aug   2.4 KAF (110% of median or 100% of average)
           Sep   2.4 KAF (162% of median or 101% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC