SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
August 1, 2019


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for August - October.

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July 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -

(Colorado Diamond Ck 936.6 + Muddy River 2.6 + 
Virgin River 5.3 - BOR Powell Release 835.4) ~ 109.1 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

August - October Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

 Forecasts

	  August     90  KAF (100% of average)
          September  76  KAF (100% of average)
          October    76  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

August - October Forecasts

	  August    107.7  KAF
          September  70.7  KAF
          October    70.2  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Aug   9.1 KAF (117% of median or 100% of average)
           Sep   9.7 KAF (130% of median or 100% of average)
           Oct  11.3 KAF (105% of median or 100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Aug  19.3 KAF (186% of median or 100% of average)
           Sep  13.9 KAF (118% of median or 100% of average)
           Oct   6.8 KAF (586% of median or 100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Aug   2.4 KAF (110% of median or 100% of average)
           Sep   2.4 KAF (162% of median or 101% of average)
           Oct   2.0 KAF (158% of median or 101% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC