SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
August 16, 2019


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for August - October.

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Augst 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -

(Colorado Diamond Ck 486.5 + Muddy River 1.1 + 
Virgin River 2.1 - BOR Powell Release 433.0) ~ 56.7 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

August - October Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

 Forecasts

	  August     70  KAF ( 78% of average)
          September  76  KAF (100% of average)
          October    76  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

August - October Forecasts

	  August     82.8  KAF
          September  77.6  KAF
          October    58.5  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Aug   6.7 KAF ( 86% of median or  74% of average)
           Sep   9.7 KAF (130% of median or 100% of average)
           Oct  11.3 KAF (105% of median or 100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Aug  10.6 KAF (102% of median or  55% of average)
           Sep  13.9 KAF (118% of median or 100% of average)
           Oct   6.8 KAF (586% of median or 100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Aug   1.4 KAF ( 64% of median or  59% of average)
           Sep   2.4 KAF (162% of median or 101% of average)
           Oct   2.0 KAF (158% of median or 101% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC