SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
September 16, 2019


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(LML, or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for September - November.

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September 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 348 + Mead Evap 31.0 + Mead Storage Change -15.9
SNWP Use 15.3 - Lagged Powell Release 358) ~ 20.4

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

September - November Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

 Forecasts

	  September  58  KAF ( 76% of average)
          October    76  KAF (100% of average)
          November   70  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

September - November Forecasts

	  September  55.0  KAF
          October    59.8  KAF
          November   69.7  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Sep   6.7 KAF ( 69% of average)
           Oct  11.3 KAF (100% of average)
           Nov  11.9 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Sep   7.0 KAF ( 50% of average)
           Oct   6.8 KAF (100% of average)
           Nov   3.7 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Sep   1.3 KAF ( 55% of average)
           Oct   2.0 KAF (101% of average)
           Nov   1.3 KAF ( 98% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC