SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
October 16, 2018


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for October - December.

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October 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -

(Colorado Diamond Ck 372.1 + Muddy River 1.1 + 
Virgin River 5.5 - BOR Powell Release 310.0) ~ 68.7 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

October - December Forecasts

	   October    79  KAF (105% of average)
	   November   55  KAF ( 96% of average)
           December   60  KAF ( 98% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

October - December Forecasts

	  October    70.0  KAF
	  November   43.1  KAF
          December   73.2  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Oct  9.3 KAF ( 86% of median or 83% of average)
	   Nov  9.9 KAF ( 86% of median or 83% of average)
           Dec 12.4 KAF (102% of median or 75% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Oct 20.8 KAF (1793% of median or 306% of average)
	   Nov  1.9 KAF ( 552% of median or  51% of average)
           Dec  2.7 KAF ( 477% of median or  62% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Oct  2.3 KAF (181% of median or 116% of average)
	   Nov  1.2 KAF ( 96% of median or  90% of average)
           Dec  1.3 KAF (103% of median or  90% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC