SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
November 1, 2018


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for November - January.

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October 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -

(Colorado Diamond Ck 753.3 + Muddy River 2.5 + 
Virgin River 15.4 - BOR Powell Release 628.5) ~ 142.7 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

November - January Forecasts

	   November   70  KAF (100% of average)
	   December   46  KAF ( 56% of average)
           January    52  KAF ( 51% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

November - January Forecasts

	  November   54.1  KAF
	  December   59.2  KAF
          January    65.6  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov 11.9 KAF (103% of median or 100% of average)
	   Dec  7.8 KAF ( 64% of median or  47% of average)
           Jan  9.1 KAF ( 72% of median or  51% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov  3.7 KAF (1076% of median or 100% of average)
	   Dec  1.0 KAF ( 177% of median or  23% of average)
           Jan  4.1 KAF ( 396% of median or  29% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Nov  1.3 KAF (104% of median or 98% of average)
	   Dec  1.0 KAF ( 86% of median or 75% of average)
           Jan  1.2 KAF ( 98% of median or 75% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC